Sample reports
A selection of our thought leadership and company reports, each open to read and download in full. We cover many more US companies than appear here.
Thought leadership
Questions that sit above any single stock, each tested against historical cases or a century of market data.
Who is paying for the build-out, and where the returns end up.
Visa and Mastercard earn a fee each time an AI agent checks out with a card, whoever built the agent. In earlier booms the investors who paid for the build lost 55% to 99%, while the network that collected on use got paid.
New debt funded 32% of big-tech capex in the year to June, up from 9%. Six warning signs from past booms, tested against today's data-centre build-out: three are clearly present and two are borderline.
The new technology wave passes two of the three tests for a general-purpose technology. The third, making other people's inventions possible, has yet to show up in anyone's accounts. Where the money survives once the architecture settles.
A structured imagination study, not a forecast: 32 original futures, the patterns across them, and where institutions are failing, for decisions made under real uncertainty.
How advantage is built, how long it lasts, and why it breaks.
US stocks created $91 trillion for their owners between 1926 and 2025. Half of it came from 46 companies, and the median stock lost money over its listed life.
Learning curves build great companies and then lock them in. Wright's Law and the innovator's dilemma, combined into one test of how durable an advantage is.
With the iPod as the anchor case, a seven-step method for telling a 10x product from a 10x system, and for finding who controls the system once it scales.
Tests we use on public and private companies alike.
A six-part framework for separating durable startups from thin wrappers built on someone else's technology. Written for venture and private-market evaluation.
Arrow's information paradox, inverted: why firms that buy intelligence need to own the learning it produces, and why investment firms are the sharpest case.
Sample company reports
An example of the report you receive on any US-listed company you name, within 24 hours.
Does the creative workflow still need Adobe once content costs almost nothing to generate? At $221 the price sits far closer to our bear case than our base. The number to watch is organic Digital Media net-new ARR.
Name a US-listed company you hold or are considering. The full report, in this same structure, reaches you within 24 hours. Your first one is free.
All reports are for information and research purposes only. They are not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Figures are as of each report's date.
